Posts Tagged ‘Philip Cramer’

SOUTH AFRICA SAYS ‘AYOBA’ TO THE WORLD

Sunday, July 11th, 2010

by Philip Cramer
(ONELOVE Ambassador)

The word ‘Ayoba’ has murky origins but what is known is that it originated in South African townships, originally used to express appreciation of good dancing, something that runs deep in the veins of South Africans. The best description I have seen uses the word ‘awesomeness’, even though that word cannot be found in any dictionary.

June 11th in Joburg – Photo Cred: Alex V.

South Africa’s hosting of the world’s premier sporting event is about to come to an end and ‘Ayoba’ fits perfectly. That was the last thing the world expected four years ago after Germany in 2006.

South Africa’s high crime rate was the main issue but other questions remained. Would the stadiums be ready? Would there be enough accommodation? Would the transport system be a disaster and the attendance numbers pitiful?

The barrage of negative publicity was relentless, especially in Europe and the U.S. It reached levels of absurdity. The German team were considering bulletproof vests for their players, and an English tabloid hysterically cataloged the list of some of the world’s most dangerous snakes that were lurking around the English team’s rural base, just waiting to short circuit their World Cup hopes.

The snakes didn’t have to bother—not that there was any real danger to begin with—as England managed to self destruct without any outside assistance.

It reached a point where even optimistic South Africans began to doubt themselves.

Estimates of foreign visitors were cut down from a high of about 450,000 down to 300,000, which would have been a disaster.

All these fears have turned out to be totally misplaced. Crime has been minimal, most of which has been dealt with speedily by an enhanced police presence and swift justice in special World Cup courts.

The world class stadiums were all ready on time as was the transport system and accommodation has been readily available.

Attendance will be over three million for only the third time in World Cup history, and the post final average attendance will be just under 50,000, exceeded by only two other tournaments. The four largest stadiums which hosted almost half the games have approached full capacity. Bear in mind that attendance at the games is determined by tickets used, not by tickets sold, as is the custom for American major league sports.

Most important has been the welcome and support given teams and tourists alike by the South African people. For them, hosting the World Cup is a miracle, or as the always effervescent Bishop Desmond Tutu, Nobel Peace Prize winner, described it, “a fairy tale come true.”

A mere two decades ago, South Africans were still living under the throes of Apartheid. The racist system made political violence an everyday reality with no end in sight.

That all changed in the early 1990’s as Nelson Mandela walked to freedom after 27 years in prison. Mandela’s freedom led a new ‘Rainbow Nation’ out of the darkness.

Today, South Africa stands at the threshold of being finally accepted. Not only as an example to the world on how to move resolve conflict, but as a nation with the wherewithal to successfully host the World Cup

South Africans of all colors united behind their beloved Bafana Bafana with even more fervor than they did in 1995 at the Rugby World Cup. Despite being eliminated in the group stage, their fans lost none of their fervor throwing support behind ‘Baghana Baghana,’ as they called the Ghanaian team in their quest to be the first African team to reach the semifinals.

Even their tragic loss at the final hurdle as not deterred the nation. There is a renewed sense of pride, evident when Nelson Mandela became President. While many questioned the sanity of spending over $4 billion on the Cup, that sense of pride and the positive image from hosting the tournament is worth so much more.

As the competition has progressed, more fans have flocked to South Africa. It’s now expected that the number of visitors for the soccer will top 500,000, far more than previous estimates.

On Monday, South Africa will return to reality. It’s country still plagued by crime, poverty, a dreadful AIDS epidemic, a lack of decent housing and an infrastructure that needs a lot more work.

For millions of black South Africans, life has improved little from the rigors of Apartheid. But many others have prospered when previously all the doors of opportunity were completely shut.

The foreign visitors will all be heading home with vuvuzelas packed in their luggage, and memories of a beautiful land and an expansive and gracious people. These visitors will no doubt spread the word about this bountiful land at the southern tip of Africa.

As a former South African who spent the first 25 years of my life during Apartheid, where fear and anger ruled, I look on with pride and more than a little bit of Aboya.

There is talk now of South Africa bidding to host the Olympics in 2020 or 2024. After the World Cup, there is no reason to doubt their ability to host such a major event and this time the fear mongers will find no traction for their skepticism.

Read more from Philip at Irritable Liberal Syndrome!

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USA vs GHANA: Match Preview

Friday, June 25th, 2010

by Philip Cramer

All eyes will be fixed on LD tomorrow – photo cred: Alex V.

This USA team reminds me of the 2002 squad that made it to the quarterfinals only to lose 1-0 to Germany in a match where the Americans outplayed the opposition. The United States should have had a penalty kick, and Germany should have had a red card for a handball on the goal line.

That team came out with fire in its eyes, believing that its could beat anybody. And the Americans did, blowing away a very fancied Portugal side with three goals in the first half-hour of the opening game.

The 2010 team has that same fire and that same self-confidence that didn’t exist on the 1998 or 2006 squads.

The United States faces a tricky game tomorrow against a Ghana team that stumbled into the Round of 16 thanks to Australia. Ghana’s two biggest problems are the absence of star midfielder Michael Essien for the entire tournament, and an offense that has only scored two goals thus far—both from penalties. Those two problems are related.

The Americans are coming off the incredible high of Landon Donovan’s extra time goal to save their tournament. That will be a huge asset as confidence is essential in the knockout stage. Ghana will have a huge weight on its shoulders as the last team standing from Africa. That can cut both ways.

The U.S. is stronger at the back because of Tim Howard, and he has been excellent throughout this World Cup. It’s often the little things that make the difference in a game, such as his quick and accurate throw that led to Donovan’s game-winning goal against Algeria.

For Ghana, Richard Kingson is solid in net and has likewise been error-free in the tournament.

The U.S. defense has been solid with Jay Demerit and Carlos Bocanegra both having exceptional tournaments. Oguchi Onyewu should be back for this game as well. His height and size will help keep Ghana’s attack at bay.

Ghana have a solid defense that has given away little including holding Germany to one unstoppable goal. John Pantsil, John Mensah, and the newly promoted Jonathan Mensah have all been solid and disciplined and will force the U.S. attack to work hard.

The midfield matches up fairly evenly despite Essien’s absence. For the U.S. Michael Bradley has been stellar with a controlled level of aggression. Donovan can break open a game and Clint Dempsey is showing the wealth of experience he has garnered playing for Fulham.

Ghana’s midfield has surprised. Anthony Annan has become one of the standout holding midfielders in the tournament, and 20-year-old Andre Ayew is excelling. Kevin Prince Boateng is another player who could cause headaches for the Americans.

Up front Jozy Altidore has played well, proving he can play at this level despite not scoring yet. A goal would surely boost his confidence. Ghana needs Asamoah Gyan to come unstuck for them to have any chance at a victory. He was woeful virtually every time he got the ball in a critical situation against Germany, wasting a number of chances.

Despite struggling through the group stage, Ghana has been consistent with few errors. The ball control skills and short passing of the midfield could give Team USA headaches. The U.S. will need an error-free defense to win.

The intangibles favor the United States. The Americans’ team unity, commitment, and aggression can get under Ghana’s skin, and if that happens the United States will prevail quite comfortably. It could be a game of few clear-cut chances and whoever takes advantage of them will win.

This game could end up hinging on a lucky break, and after the group round the United States seems to have used up their allotment of bad breaks.

Soccer at this level can be a fickle mistress. The odds slightly favor the United States which is an accurate reflection of the game’s prospects. Ghana has more skill but the United States has heart, cohesion, and determination, attributes that have not been as evident for Ghana.

The United States should prevail by the odd goal, but expect a well-played, tight game.

read more from Philip at Irritable Liberal Syndrome!

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BAFANA, BAFANA: What Happened?

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

by Philip Cramer

Bafana, Bafana, you broke my heart.

Where was the team that came alive against Mexico and almost beat them? Yesterday, that team was nowhere to be seen.  Yesterday, you looked like the team that is ranked 83rd by FIFA.  Yesterday, you proved why all the critics wrote you off before the World Cup even started.

It isn’t that you lost.  Uruguay showed us they are a very good team that played with discipline and commitment.  There is no shame in losing to a team that plays well.  The difference is that they played with passion and commitment, and you did not.

You were beaten to the ball too many times.  They ran you down from behind.  They fought harder and they showed heart.  I did not sense that from you, Bafana.

Siphiwe Tshablala, when you said before the game that Uruguay was in plenty of trouble, you stirred up a hornet’s nest.  It only inspires your opponent.

Perhaps the team was too confident. I confess that we were all confident.  The team played well in the games before the Cup, especially the last one, when you outplayed and beat a good Denmark side.  We all believed the low FIFA ranking was a reflection of the past, not of the present.

Coach Parreira, you blamed the referee after the game.  It was not the referee’s fault.  It was a penalty, even if Itumeleng Khune did not intend to foul.  It was unlucky because the tip of his foot accidentally caught Luis Suarez’s foot.  That is still a penalty, even though the red card was harsh.  What I cannot understand is why you made no changes in the lineup or the tactics when it was clear nothing was working.

South Africa is still proud of Bafana.  It is not over yet, and the team brought joy to a nation that has welcomed the rest of the world.  The country is sad but they are not upset.  We know you did your best on an emotional day for us—National Youth Day, when we remember those school children who stood tall and defiant in the face of police bullets to oppose an evil system.

South Africa is still new to international soccer and the team still has a lot to learn, but this will make Bafana stronger.  It isn’t over yet and we still have one game left.  It will be difficult to make it to the next round.  We have nothing to lose, so all I ask is that you find the heart and the ability that the team has. Even if we don’t advance, Bafana and the country will hold their heads high.

check out more from Philip Cramer at Irritable Liberal Syndrome.

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WORLD CUP ANALYSIS: Group E

Monday, June 14th, 2010

by Philip Cramer

Group E: Cameroon, Netherlands, Denmark, Japan

Cameroon

Cameroon has more experience in the World Cup than any other African nation and they bring a mix of youth and experience that should hold them in good stead. They have also avoided the injury bug that has hurt Ghana, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast.

They have a seasoned group of defenders which is becoming increasingly important in what is turning out to be a fairly low scoring cup thus far. A surprise has been that the coach Paul Le Guen has announced that the presumptive starting keeper, Carlos Kemeni will be benched for the opening game against Japan.

On defense Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Sebastian Bassong are both coming off solid seasons with Tottenham Hotspurs. Nicolas Nkoulou, one of the bright young stars in the tournament as well as the experienced Stephane Mbia who anchors the Marseilles central defense complete a solid quartet.

In midfield, Alexandre Song of Arsenal who is strong and technically gifted defense oriented player as well as Jean Makoun, a veteran with Lyon.

Cameroon play a 4-3-1-2 formation with much of the strength in the back. The defensive midfielders have no hesitation to move into the attack to support the key for Cameroon,

Three time African Footballer of the Year, Samuel Eto’o who has had a stellar career at Barcelona and now Inter Milan is their inspirational leader. Although still only 29 he has 42 goals in 92 appearances for the Indomitable Lions. Partnering him up front will be Pierre Webo another veteran with Achille Emana supporting them from the midfield position.

The team has balance and experience and could be the first African team to finally get further than the quarter finals.


Denmark

Denmark brings a team with lots of experience. They are a solid team that plays a typical Northern European style which is both disciplined and direct.

In goal they have the experienced Thomas Sorensen of Stoke although a late season injury could be a problem. In defense they have the solid Daniel Agger of Liverpool and the rising star, Simon Kjaer, also fighting an injury. Kjaer was excellent in containing both Christian Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in qualifying games allowing Denmark to finish ahead of Portugal as well as eliminate Sweden from the finals. They also have the experienced Per Kroldrup to help out.

Their key holding midfielder, Christian Poulson is a solid tackler and great distributor of the ball. With 74 caps the Juventus player is a key to the team’s success. Daniel Jensen is another veteran who scored the vital goal to beat Portugal away to ensure qualification.

Up front they have Nicklas Bentner of Arsenal, a strong finisher who at 22 is the second youngest players on the team. Although somewhat inconsistent he is a potential game winner. Alongside him, Soren Larsen has a nose for goals, hitting the net 11 times in 18 appearances. He led all scorers in the group ahead of Ronaldo. They also have Dennis Rommedahl and Jon-Dahl Tomasson who have both seen better days but whose experience could be valuable coming off the bench.

Japan

Japan is somewhat of an enigma. With all but four of their players based in the J-League they have little experience at the top club level.

In defense they have Yuji Nakazawa, their central defensive lynchpin and the heart of the team with over 100 caps. The balance of the defense has a considerable amount of international experience and will keep them in games.

Yasuhito Endo is one of their midfield keys with over 90 caps along with Keisuke Honda who featured prominently in CSKA Moscow’s charge to the quarter finals of the European Cup this past season.

Keiji Amada is another veteran up front with 16 goals and 70 appearances. Shinji Okazaki will probably be the other starter up front. He is lethal from close up and is a classic goal poacher with 16 in only 28 international appearances. He creates goals as well and will require close marking.

Whether their relative lack of experience in European leagues will hurt remains to be seen. Their style is similar to South Korea’s. They work together well as a team and have both speed and unflagging energy. A ‘never say die’ attitude will keep opponents honest and will be made to pay if they take Japan too lightly.


Holland

It’s a tribute to Dutch soccer that a relatively small country with a population of a little over 16 million can produce a constant supply of great players and teams since they emerged as a soccer power in the early 1970’s. Their current team is no different. Their Achilles heel could be in goal and in defense. They are loaded with world class talent in midfield and up front.

Since the international retirement of Edwin Van Der Saar they lack a world class keeper but Maarten Stekelenberg of Ajax is dependable and not prone to errors.

John Heitenga of Everton is a versatile defender and one of the keys to Everton’s solid performance in the Premier League. Gregory Van Der Wiel is a rising star with Ajax whose ability will be tested in South Africa. Veterans Giovanni Van Bronckhorst, Andre Ooijer and Khalid Boulahrouz all have the necessary experience to see the team comfortably through the first round but might be troubled against some of their stronger potential opponents in the later rounds.

Mark Van Bommel is a tough defensive midfielder who will have to work hard on defense, something he is more than capable of having assumed that role at Bayern Munich for the past few seasons. Wesley Sneijder is the kingpin in the middle. He has few peers in Europe in the passing game and can dictate the pace as needed. His brilliance in set pieces and his knack for scoring from long range makes him the complete player. He was a key to Real Madrid’s midfield for three years when they inexplicably let him escape to Inter Milan where he has cemented his reputation, leading them to the triple.

Rafael Van Der Vaart of Real Madrid, Nigel De Jong of Manchester City and Denny De Zeew of Ajax complete a midfield that has few peers.

Up front they have Robin Van Persie of Arsenal who is coming of an injury plagued season at Arsenal but is now fully fit. Arjen Robben has resuscitated his career at Bayern Munich after a frustrating few years at Real Madrid. He plays mostly on the wing and both creates and scores goals as well as possessing deceptive speed. His receding hair and his already lengthy career belie his relatively young age of 26. Klaas Jan Huntelaar is another gifted striker who led the qualifying group in scoring but had a frustrating season at Real Madrid prior to his recent move to A.C. Milan and will probably be partnering Van Persie up front.

Whether Holland can finally put it all together and win the cup remains to be seen but if either Spain or Brazil falters they could finally win one. Cameroon has enough talent and experience to advance as well. Denmark and Japan will make their opponents work hard.

Fearless forecast:

1 Cameroon
2 Holland

These two meet in the final group game by which time I expect both to have already secured their places in the next round. Holland rests a few players and Cameroon pulls off a mild surprise.

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WORLD CUP ANALYSIS: Group B

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

by Philip Cramer

Group B: Argentina, Greece, Nigeria, South Korea.

This appears to be one of the easier groups to pick. I can’t see any of these teams stopping Argentina from winning the group. What can you say about an attack that may have Carlos Tevez and Diego Milito, who scored both goals in the Champion’s League final sitting on the bench. That’s the good news. Then there’s Diego Maradonna who has threatened to run naked through the streets of Buenos Aires if they win the cup. Given a choice, the players would rather win the cup and have to witness that spectacle but not by much.

More importantly I cannot understand why he left both Esteban Cambiasso and Javier Zanetti off the team. Both were a key part of Inter Milan’s record setting treble this past season and have proved themselves at the highest level. They still have Javier Mascherano and Maxi Rodriguez, who wasn’t at his best for Liverpool this season, in midfield. In defense they have Walter Samuel and Martin Dimichelis who are both world class but Garbriel Heinze has seen better days. The goalkeepers are all adequate but not exceptional.

He also picked two of his old favorites, Juan Veron (35) and Martin Palermo (37) the idol of Boca. Palermo is little more than an appendage considering the other strikers but Maradonna probably wants to hear the Argentine commentators yell, “Marteeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeen” once more before the commentator passes out from a lack of oxygen.

Nigeria has seen their star tarnished somewhat in recent years with a surprising failure to qualify for 2006 behind Angola. The stars of the late 90’s such as Jay Jay Okocha and Sunday Oliseh have gone although Nwankwo Kanu at 34 is still on the team. In defense they have the seasoned Joseph Yobo and Dickson Etuhu in the midfield but they will sorely miss John Obi Mikel of Chelsea who is out for the tournament. Up front they have Yakubu and Obafemi Martins who bring a lot of European and Premier League experience to the table.

They have a new coach, Lars Lagerbeck who coached the Swedish national team for the past nine years, but then again, they always have a new coach so that shouldn’t bother them much. Nigeria is, as always, very physical, fast and has good ball handling skills. Qualification will probably come down to their final game in the group against South Korea.

Don’t expect to see them get much support from the South African fans. The locals don’t like Nigerians many, of whom came to South Africa after the end of apartheid and got involved in drug trafficking. Nigerians were equally offended by their portrayal in the Sci-Fi film, District 9 that was written, directed and filmed in Johannesburg.

South Korea broke through in 2002 when they hosted the cup. Prior to that they had gone 14 games without a win, debuting in 1954 when they were beaten 9-0 by Hungary and 7-0 by Turkey. They have made every final since 1986. They are consistently the best team in Asia and despite not making it to the second round in 2006, held France to a draw A loss to Switzerland in the last game cont them a chance of moving on.

They key player is Park Si Jung who had a great season with Manchester United. He can control the midfield with his speed and skill on the ball. Their defense can be a little suspect but their work rate is phenomenal and their fitness is never in doubt. Apparently they have been using oxygen tents to acclimate to the altitude although two of their three games will be at sea level. A handful of their players now play in Europe which previously wasn’t the case. Lee Chung Yong is another midfielder whose speed and passing down the wing added a dimension to Bolton Wanderers and was their Player of the Year.

I am not that familiar with Greece as most of their players play locally in Greece. They had a relatively easy route to qualification finishing second in their group behind Switzerland and ahead of Latvia and Israel. In the playoff they were held at home by Ukraine to a goalless draw and then surprised them by poaching a goal in the first half and hanging on to qualify.

Their biggest asset is their German coach Otto Renhagel who took them to the unlikeliest of victories in Euro 2004 when they beat Portugal twice, including the final as well as beating France and the Czech Republic and drawing with Spain with a team if unknowns. I can’t see them repeating that miracle in only their second appearance in the finals. In their first appearance in 1994 they lost all their games by a combined goal margin of 0-10. They will do better than that dismal debut but not by much.

There is a large Greek émigré population in South Africa who will turn out in full support and that might help.

Argentina will win the group and might even take maximum points if all goes well. South Korea and Nigeria will battle it out for second place.

Fearless Forecast:

1 – Argentina
2 – Nigeria

read more from ONELOVE Ambassador Philip Cramer at Irritable Liberal Syndrome.

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WORLD CUP ANALYSIS: GROUP A

Monday, June 7th, 2010

by Philip Cramer

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France.

One of the most interesting and wide open groups. Any of the 4 teams can finish either first or last. Yes, I know most are giving South Africa little hope to advance and I am more than a tad biased but this isn’t the same team that endured a prolonged slump and failed to even qualify for the African Cup of Nations.

Carlos Alberto Parreira (Brazil ’94 coach) was brought in and since then Bafana has gone undefeated in 12 games, albeit mostly against weaker opponents. Home support will obviously be a huge factor despite limited success in their two previous appearances. Consider South Korea who had no wins in 14 prior games before they made it to the semi-finals as hosts in 2002.

Bafana has a solid defense although it is mistake-prone at times. Their strength is in the midfield where they match with up with any of their opponents. Their biggest problem is up front where they always struggle to score against quality teams. A big plus for South Africa is that the local season was shortened by two months to allow for extended training camps. They are well rested and Parreira is fanatical about fitness which will help in the later stages of their games.

Mexico were in the same bad shape as Bafana when they fired the overrated Sven Goren Eriksson halfway through qualifying. It looked as though they wouldn’t qualify, something that is normally automatic for them in the weak CONCACAF region. Javier Aguirre worked the same magic he did in 2002 in Korea, guiding ‘El Tri’ to qualifying comfortably. The team has a good mix of veterans and youth and the Dos Santos brothers controversy seems to have died down. The altitude will not be a problem for them. They’ve looked lively in their lead-in games and beat a lackluster Italy earlier this week.

They have excellent speed up front with Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez and solid midfield support from Andres Guardado and Giovanni dos Santos, making for arguably the best attack in this group. In the back a lot will depend on Rafael Marquez who hasn’t seen much playing time with Barcelona this year. Their opening game against South Africa will answer a lot of questions. Mexico are a little more polished than Bafana, especially up front, but home support should negate that. It might come down to a bit of luck for either team in the opener.

Uruguay’s strength is up front where Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez are formidable. Forlan won the scoring title in Spain this past season and can be a gamebreaker. Suarez has all the tools and can both create and score goals. Close them down and it becomes a lot harder for Uruguay. As you work your way back back from the front Uruguay’s weaknesses become more apparent. Goalkeeping has been dodgy although Walter Gargano, who plays for Napoli, stands out in defence. Martin Caceres has become a regular on the Juventus squad, but considering their lame performance this season, that might not be much of a recommendation. Nonetheless, there is little depth beyond those two.

Since winning the cup for the second time in 1950 they Uruguay hasn’t done much other than a semi-final appearance in 1970

Zidane was France’s talisman. Consider the record. With Zidane they won in ’98, won Euro 2000 and if not for a moment of sheer insanity might have won in Germany. With Zidane injured they crashed out in ’02 without scoring a goal and didn’t make it out of the group in Euro ’06, although they did manage to score. They only made it to South Africa when Thierry Henry utilized his volleyball skills against Ireland.

If there is justice in soccer, France ought to be sent home early, but sadly there is little. Their warm up games include a 2-1 win against Costa Rica, a draw with Tunisia, and a 1-0 loss to China. There is a measure of gloom in their camp and with a number of their players rapidly approaching their ‘use by date,’ more problems are likely to surface. Then again, they have the talent with Ribery, Gourcuff, their rising midfield star, Malouda and a trio of Arsenal defenders and they could just as easily win the group.

France’s first game against Uruguay might be their easiest as long as they can contain Forlan and Suarez. Ribery, Gourcuff and Malouda are all coming off excellent seasons and should stretch the Uruguayan defense beyond its capabilities. The game is at sea level but their next games are at altitude against the two teams that are comfortable in the thinner air.

A couple of the more fancied teams will crash out in the first round and France is a prime candidate.

My fearless forecast:
1 – South Africa 2 – Mexico
(It’s the week before the kickoff when hope springs eternal for all fans and I have to go with my heart)

Check out more from ONELOVE Ambassador Philip Cramer at Irritable Liberal Syndrome.

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