by Philip Cramer

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France.

One of the most interesting and wide open groups. Any of the 4 teams can finish either first or last. Yes, I know most are giving South Africa little hope to advance and I am more than a tad biased but this isn’t the same team that endured a prolonged slump and failed to even qualify for the African Cup of Nations.

Carlos Alberto Parreira (Brazil ’94 coach) was brought in and since then Bafana has gone undefeated in 12 games, albeit mostly against weaker opponents. Home support will obviously be a huge factor despite limited success in their two previous appearances. Consider South Korea who had no wins in 14 prior games before they made it to the semi-finals as hosts in 2002.

Bafana has a solid defense although it is mistake-prone at times. Their strength is in the midfield where they match with up with any of their opponents. Their biggest problem is up front where they always struggle to score against quality teams. A big plus for South Africa is that the local season was shortened by two months to allow for extended training camps. They are well rested and Parreira is fanatical about fitness which will help in the later stages of their games.

Mexico were in the same bad shape as Bafana when they fired the overrated Sven Goren Eriksson halfway through qualifying. It looked as though they wouldn’t qualify, something that is normally automatic for them in the weak CONCACAF region. Javier Aguirre worked the same magic he did in 2002 in Korea, guiding ‘El Tri’ to qualifying comfortably. The team has a good mix of veterans and youth and the Dos Santos brothers controversy seems to have died down. The altitude will not be a problem for them. They’ve looked lively in their lead-in games and beat a lackluster Italy earlier this week.

They have excellent speed up front with Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez and solid midfield support from Andres Guardado and Giovanni dos Santos, making for arguably the best attack in this group. In the back a lot will depend on Rafael Marquez who hasn’t seen much playing time with Barcelona this year. Their opening game against South Africa will answer a lot of questions. Mexico are a little more polished than Bafana, especially up front, but home support should negate that. It might come down to a bit of luck for either team in the opener.

Uruguay’s strength is up front where Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez are formidable. Forlan won the scoring title in Spain this past season and can be a gamebreaker. Suarez has all the tools and can both create and score goals. Close them down and it becomes a lot harder for Uruguay. As you work your way back back from the front Uruguay’s weaknesses become more apparent. Goalkeeping has been dodgy although Walter Gargano, who plays for Napoli, stands out in defence. Martin Caceres has become a regular on the Juventus squad, but considering their lame performance this season, that might not be much of a recommendation. Nonetheless, there is little depth beyond those two.

Since winning the cup for the second time in 1950 they Uruguay hasn’t done much other than a semi-final appearance in 1970

Zidane was France’s talisman. Consider the record. With Zidane they won in ’98, won Euro 2000 and if not for a moment of sheer insanity might have won in Germany. With Zidane injured they crashed out in ’02 without scoring a goal and didn’t make it out of the group in Euro ’06, although they did manage to score. They only made it to South Africa when Thierry Henry utilized his volleyball skills against Ireland.

If there is justice in soccer, France ought to be sent home early, but sadly there is little. Their warm up games include a 2-1 win against Costa Rica, a draw with Tunisia, and a 1-0 loss to China. There is a measure of gloom in their camp and with a number of their players rapidly approaching their ‘use by date,’ more problems are likely to surface. Then again, they have the talent with Ribery, Gourcuff, their rising midfield star, Malouda and a trio of Arsenal defenders and they could just as easily win the group.

France’s first game against Uruguay might be their easiest as long as they can contain Forlan and Suarez. Ribery, Gourcuff and Malouda are all coming off excellent seasons and should stretch the Uruguayan defense beyond its capabilities. The game is at sea level but their next games are at altitude against the two teams that are comfortable in the thinner air.

A couple of the more fancied teams will crash out in the first round and France is a prime candidate.

My fearless forecast:
1 – South Africa 2 – Mexico
(It’s the week before the kickoff when hope springs eternal for all fans and I have to go with my heart)

Check out more from ONELOVE Ambassador Philip Cramer at Irritable Liberal Syndrome.